Right On!

Seasoned veterans of the military chuckle at the mention of a “Second Lieutenant”. The lowest rank among commissioned officers, the 2Lt. is, more often than not, new to the Armed Forces, let alone to leadership. The humor, at the Lieutenant’s expense, is well deserved.

Been there, done that!

As an eager, gung-ho 2^nd Lt. assigned to the role of a Platoon Leader in Cold War Germany, I was energetic in my quest to become competent and “all that I could be.” Raised in a Midwestern environment of family who were hard-working, self-reliant, church-going Illinoisans, there was always the thought that we weren’t better than anyone, and neither were others better than us.

Accordingly, I took my first job after high-school as the night shift janitor at Edwards hospital in neighboring Naperville. During the Summer I poured concrete and worked at Cerro Copper in Sauget as a United Steel Worker. I did my own tune-ups, changed my own water pump, rebuilt carburetors, and kept my ’69 Mustang running (with no heat) within the constraints of a young man’s budget. (Car heat was a luxury, the water pump a necessity).

Initially I approached being an Officer of our damn fine Army with the same values.  I considered myself a working stiff who merely happened to be a 2^nd Lt.  In some sense I was embarrassed by my new class distinction.  During my first months, I noticed one day the office floor needed to be swept. Wanting to show soldiers that I wasn’t afraid of work, that there was no work beneath me and that I was willing to do what I expected them to do, I grabbed the broom and began to sweep.

Not a few minutes later my Platoon Sergeant, a Green Beret Viet Nam veteran, came into the office, took me out into the hallway and said: “Sir, what are YOU doing?” I answered: “Sergeant Lutz, I’m doing what needs to be done, and setting the example. No one can say I am ‘too good to sweep.’”  He nodded, knew my intent, but said: “Sir, you’re an officer. Soldiers expect you to do officer work, and to tell them to do soldier work. Sweeping is not officer work.” Trusting his experience, I relinquished the broom and he made sure the floor was swept.  I never touched a broom in uniform again.

The story made me think of our President.  He’s not from a wealthy family, didn’t grow up in a life of privilege, but is already in a world class leadership position as a young man.  I see traces that indicate he isn’t quite yet comfortable being the world’s most powerful man.  From “regular Joe” to leader is not an easy transition. Imagine how much more difficult the adjustment to President is!

It takes time.

I hope he has people like SFC Lutz, who have the nation’s best interest at heart, to help him. 

We'll see.

We're off to a bad start under our new President.  Some of that, but not all, is due to the bad ending of the previous Presidency.  Consider:

AIG couldn't have doled out tax dollars to bonus babies had the administration been more reasonable than rushed in getting the  "Stimulus Package" passed.

Accepting Treasury Secretary Geithner's explanation of his personal tax payments makes it easy for Americans to suspect we have another group in power who are  "above the law."  Credibility is now questionable in everything this Secretary does.

The President invited the Iranians to politely join us at the table, only to be snubbed and then admonished that Iranians won't join in talks until we confess we were wrong about them and the Middle East.

Russia, probably leveraging the kinder and gentler Obama administration, is now closer to putting long range bombers in the Gulf of Mexico without nary a public complaint from us.  Did JFK just roll over in his grave?

President Obama sent a SECRET letter to the Russian president to say we would back away from our missile defense system in Europe if he would kindly talk to the Iranians for us and urge them to be nice.  I wonder if he has forgotten that our support of that defense system was a prime factor in the collapse of the former Eastern Bloc?

In his rush to have a glorious "First 100 Days" you have to ask which of these outcomes are the unintended consequence of youthful inexperience and its corresponding lack of wisdom, or which are intentional?

Either way, we're off to a bad start.

The DJIA closed at 7365 today (20 Feb 2009). The talking heads on the business channels all point out that it hasn’t been that low for 6 years.

To me that’s not useful information. I want to know the FIRST time it crossed 7365, since it’s upward, not downward or backwards I want to go.

The first time the market hit 7365? June of 1997. We have lost almost 12 years of value. This historical fact equates your investments today with the same value of June 1997.  Eleven long years later it closed at its all time high.

At the 1929 peak, the market never returned to that valuation until 1954. 25 years later. This kills the buy and hold theory doesn’t it?

Not that the past is perfect prologue, but 25 years from now is 2034.  If we are lucky it will only take  11 years to get back to the top, but who knows?

Maybe I can put retirement off until then.

This cartoon, published in the NY Post, has its roots in studies of chance; letting a monkey pick stocks, or putting a monkey at a typewriter and eventually watching it pound out A Farewell to Arms.  "Birdbrain"  "Monkeybrain."  The schemes designed and passed by Congress are accurately referenced in this cartoon. 

In other words, we've got monkeys running Washington.

The sooner we accept that, the better we'll feel.

The Fallacy of the False Alternative is alive and well in the Obama administration. Groomed and nourished under the G.W. group, the fallacy can be considered “Politics American Style”.

Here’s how it works: When discussing any issue that you support, speak as if there were only one other possible alternative than your solution and make sure it’s a bad one.

“You’re either with us or against us, in this fight against terror.”

Sound familiar?

The message implies you cannot be against the Bush admiinistration unless you support terror. The technique is effective, persuasive, particularly for those less prone to skepticism and, it’s absurd. We couldn’t have gone to war in Iraq without it.

The fallacy, sometimes considered black-and-white thinking, is manipulative, especially when aimed against those who oppose an agenda. When encountering critics, defenders of President Bush’s policies would often respond: “You just hate George Bush!” Can I not think there is a better way than the President’s unless I hate him? Is there really no other motive for the criticism, such as love of country and American values?

This fallacy is not the monopoly of Republicans. In a meeting before the press, President Obama said: “We're moving quickly [to pass this stimulus package] because if we don't, the economy's going to keep getting worse."

Do you see the false-alternative? If we don’t pass this quickly, then the only other choice is the economy’s going to continue to decline.

Is there really no other option, no better plan possible? Will the economy actually stop declining the minute we pass this, or are we just hoping so?

The false-alternative is alive and well, and fast becoming an American tradition. Voters beware of promise givers; you just might regret it.